Bitcoin Price Trajectory: 2025-2040 Projections and Market Drivers

#BTC

• Technical indicators show Bitcoin trading above key moving averages with improving momentum signals
• Growing institutional adoption and regulatory support create strong fundamental backdrop
• Long-term price projections reflect increasing scarcity and network value accumulation

BTC Price Prediction

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Above Key Moving Average

According to BTCC financial analyst Robert, Bitcoin's current price of $122,159.62 trading above the 20-day moving average of $116,818 indicates sustained bullish momentum. The MACD reading of -4,306.95, while negative, shows improving momentum as the histogram narrows. Bitcoin trading near the upper Bollinger Band at $127,121.26 suggests potential resistance, but maintaining above the middle band support at $116,818 demonstrates underlying strength.

Robert notes that the technical configuration supports continued upward movement, with the key support zone between $116,818 and $106,514 providing a solid foundation for further gains.

Market Sentiment: Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Support Fuel Bitcoin Optimism

BTCC financial analyst Robert highlights that recent developments create a fundamentally positive environment for Bitcoin. The combination of Senator Lummis' proposed tax relief for small bitcoin payments, Block's Square enabling fee-free Bitcoin payments until 2026, and the $10B+ institutional participation at Bitcoin 2140 Forum demonstrates growing mainstream adoption.

Robert emphasizes that while short-term holder supply has increased by 559,000 Bitcoin, indicating new buyer enthusiasm, the overall market structure remains healthy. The convergence of regulatory support, institutional investment, and payment infrastructure development aligns with the technical bullish outlook.

Factors Influencing BTC's Price

Bitcoin's Healthy Correction Sets Stage for $150K Target

Bitcoin's failure to close above the $123,000-$124,000 resistance zone signals a cooling period. Market structure remains bullish, with the current pullback viewed as a healthy reset before the next upward wave toward $150,000.

Analyst ZYN's heatmap analysis reveals fragile support between $121,000-$120,000, with a critical accumulation zone at $117,000 where 190,000 BTC were previously bought. This level could attract renewed buying interest, mirroring historical patterns where retracements into strong support fuel subsequent rallies.

Senator Lummis Proposes Tax Relief for Small Bitcoin Payments

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to introduce a de minimis tax exemption for everyday Bitcoin transactions, aiming to alleviate reporting burdens and foster Bitcoin's use in daily commerce. The proposal targets small-scale payments, exempting them from capital gains taxes to simplify the tax process for users.

Legislative efforts to integrate digital assets into the mainstream financial system are gaining traction. By removing tax complexities for low-value transactions, the measure could accelerate bitcoin adoption among average consumers and businesses.

Senator Lummis emphasized the initiative's goal: "Making it easier for Americans to use Bitcoin in their everyday lives, without unnecessary tax complications." The MOVE aligns with broader regulatory clarity efforts for digital assets in the U.S.

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Cycles Driven by Monetary Policy, Not Halvings

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin's price movements are primarily influenced by global monetary policy rather than its halving events. The long-observed four-year cycle, he claims, has lost its predictive power.

Historical bull runs aligned with periods of aggressive monetary easing in the US and China, not the halving schedule. Cycles ended when liquidity tightened, not due to time-based events.

The current market diverges from past patterns. A $2.5 trillion injection by the US Treasury, anticipated banking deregulation, and the Fed's rate cuts despite elevated inflation create unique conditions. Futures markets price in additional easing later this year.

Peter Brandt Predicts Potential Bitcoin Breakout from Four-Year Cycle

Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggests Bitcoin could experience dramatic price action if it diverges from its historical four-year cycle pattern. The cryptocurrency's previous cycles have shown symmetry between the time from cycle low to halving and from halving to peak. Bitcoin's current cycle, which began with a low on November 9, 2022, followed this pattern until recently when it set a new all-time high above $126,100.

Brandt highlights the significant opportunity—and risk—if Bitcoin breaks from this established rhythm. "Trends that violate the prevailing cyclic or seasonal nature of markets are typically the most dramatic," he observes. While maintaining cautious optimism, Brandt assigns a 50% probability to this scenario playing out, with potential upside targets ranging from $150,000 to $185,000.

The debate around Bitcoin's cyclicality continues as institutional adoption and ETF products reshape market dynamics. Some analysts project an October peak if Bitcoin follows its 2020 trajectory, while others estimate more conservative probabilities for the current cycle's completion.

bepay money Powers Bitcoin 2140 Forum in Dubai, Bringing $10B+ in Bitcoin Holdings and 50+ Leading Projects

Dubai Knowledge Park hosted the Bitcoin 2140 Forum, a landmark event powered by global cross-border payment platform bepay money. The forum united miners, developers, and institutional leaders under the theme "Pioneering the Path to Bitcoin’s Future." With 60+ speakers, 50+ Bitcoin projects, and 200+ experts, the gathering represented over $10 billion in Bitcoin holdings.

Dubai’s progressive regulatory environment and capital inflows solidify its position as a global hub for Bitcoin and Web3 innovation. The forum’s 100% Bitcoin-focused agenda emphasized institutional adoption, sustainability, and evolution of the cryptocurrency.

bepay money showcased its next-generation payment infrastructure, offering seamless integration of fiat, stablecoins, and tokenized assets. The platform’s institutional-grade compliance and instant cross-border settlements position it as a key player in Bitcoin’s financial ecosystem.

Bitcoin and Altcoin Open Interest Mirrors December 2024 Warning Pattern, Analyst Warns

A cryptocurrency analyst has identified a concerning trend in the derivatives market: Bitcoin and altcoin open interest is replicating a setup that preceded previous market downturns. The metric, which tracks outstanding derivative positions across exchanges, has surged alongside Bitcoin's recent price rally—suggesting increased speculative activity.

When open interest rises, it signals traders are opening fresh Leveraged positions, often amplifying volatility. The current pattern bears striking resemblance to conditions observed in December 2024, which preceded significant market contraction. Historical data shows such spikes in speculative interest frequently precede liquidity cascades as overleveraged positions unwind.

Market participants should note this technical warning coincides with Bitcoin testing key psychological resistance levels. The altcoin market—typically more volatile than Bitcoin—appears particularly vulnerable given its correlation with BTC derivatives flows.

Bitcoin Emerges as the Benchmark in Modern Finance, Says Pompliano

Bitcoin's relentless rally continues to defy expectations, with Anthony Pompliano framing it as the new "hurdle rate" for investors. The cryptocurrency recently notched an all-time high of $126,100, trading around $122,500 at press time—a testament to its growing dominance.

In a CNBC interview, Pompliano positioned Bitcoin as a "savings technology," arguing that allocating a portion of one's wealth to BTC safeguards against fiat currency debasement. "They will never stop printing money," he remarked, underscoring Bitcoin's scarcity as a counterbalance to expansive monetary policies.

The narrative shifts from speculative asset to foundational wealth storage. Pompliano's thesis hinges on Bitcoin outperforming traditional assets, forcing investors to clear its returns before considering alternatives. This paradigm, he suggests, will accelerate adoption and redefine portfolio construction.

Bitcoin Retreats From $126K Peak as Market Watches 'Uptober' Sustainability

Bitcoin's rally faltered after touching $126,000, though the cryptocurrency retains most gains with a 7% October surge. The market now weighs whether seasonal trends and institutional flows can sustain momentum.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.2 billion in weekly inflows - among the strongest since April - while wallets holding 10-1,000 BTC show persistent accumulation. Glassnode data confirms institutional participation is absorbing spot supply and improving liquidity.

Despite rising leverage signaling potential short-term volatility, on-chain metrics suggest the broader bullish structure remains intact. Q4 historically delivers Bitcoin's strongest performance, often aligning with renewed risk appetite among investors.

Block's Square Enables Bitcoin Payments for Merchants with Fee Waiver Until 2026

Block has rolled out Square Bitcoin, allowing U.S. merchants—excluding those in New York—to accept BTC payments starting November 10. Sellers can convert up to 50% of daily revenue into Bitcoin via Square's dashboard, managing holdings through a built-in wallet. The feature targets mainstream adoption by mimicking card payment simplicity while offering corporate-grade financial tools to small businesses.

Processing fees will remain waived until 2026, after which a 1% transaction fee takes effect in 2027. Miles Suter, Block's Head of Bitcoin Product, emphasized the dual advantage of Square and Cash App integration: "We're bridging the gap between crypto and daily commerce, preparing merchants for a digital-first future."

The announcement propelled Block's shares (NYSE: XYZ) up 2.6%. With over 4 million merchants on Square's platform, this initiative could significantly accelerate Bitcoin's utility as a transactional currency.

Bitcoin Holders Show Restraint as Prices Hit Record Highs

Bitcoin's ascent to a new all-time high above $126,000 has failed to trigger significant profit-taking among holders, signaling enduring confidence in the cryptocurrency's upward trajectory. On-chain data reveals realized profits of just 0.26 million BTC ($30 billion) over the past month—half July's figures and far below the $78-$99 billion peaks seen during previous market cycles.

The muted selling pressure suggests investors anticipate further gains. "When holders refuse to cash out at record prices, it typically means they're waiting for higher levels," notes Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant. Annual realized profit metrics continue their upward trend, a historical precursor to sustained bullish momentum.

Short-term traders are locking in minimal 2% gains, well below the 8% threshold associated with market tops. Long-term holders show even greater restraint, with realized profit margins at 129%—substantially lower than cycle extremes. This collective discipline mirrors patterns seen in early-stage bull markets rather than speculative peaks.

Short-Term Holder Supply Rises By 559K Bitcoin – New Buyers Flood the Market

Bitcoin stands at a crossroads, poised for a decisive move that will shape its near-term trajectory. After weeks of volatility and record-breaking highs, the cryptocurrency faces a critical test: reclaim all-time highs to enter price discovery or consolidate at current levels. Market sentiment remains finely balanced, with traders awaiting clear directional signals.

On-chain data reveals a surge in new buyers, marking one of the strongest capital inflows in months. The supply held by short-term holders has grown by 559,000 BTC over the past quarter, reflecting fresh participation. This influx suggests investors increasingly view current price levels as an opportunity rather than a peak.

Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on Bitcoin's underlying market structure. Provided key support levels hold, the stage may be set for another breakout. Such a move could propel BTC beyond previous records into uncharted territory, reigniting the upward momentum that has characterized its recent performance.

BTC Price Predictions: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 Forecasts

Based on current technical indicators and fundamental developments, BTCC financial analyst Robert provides the following projections:

Robert cautions that these projections assume continued adoption growth and favorable regulatory developments, with short-term volatility expected as the market consolidates recent gains.